Seminole Sun
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Posted - 2010.06.17 16:33:00 -
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 Originally by: Khun SP
For example my corporation builds T2 ammunition and it requires some PI stuff. Expect ammunition prices to get more and more expensive as a result, so lvl4 missioners will notice the impact. Etc etc. I mean this is not affecting just POS owners, its to the whole economy.
My guess (and it's just a guess) is that the "low-end" moon minerals come up greatly in price while the "high-end" bear the brunt of the hit. Here's my logic:
1) Incoming isk into the system hasn't really changed (missions and bounties). It may be slightly different (tweaks to L5s offset by more people running them because of the fall in mineral prices etc) but it's not going to be orders of magnitude different. There has been the removal of an isk sink (NPC sell orders) of which we can't possibly know the magnitude... especially since it's been "replaced" by the new isk sink of PI CC's and extractors, etc.
2) We know, right now, that the bulk of the cost of a T2 ship comes from moon minerals (and the costs associated with running those POS's). The low-end moon minerals and the high-end moon minerals cost the same to produce but the low-end's will just stop producing if it becomes an unprofitable venture. They have a hard floor.
3) A typical ship costs ~8.2% T1 minerals, 91.7% moon minerals, 0.1% NPC (now PI) inputs.
4) Based on that, there's significant room for the PI stuff to increase in cost (even if it quadruples the price increase will be a blip on the radar).
That will have two ripple affects. The cost of low-ends will go up (proportionally the same) as will the mark-up for the first two middle men of the t2 chain (remember, they're running POS's too). On the other hand, the fuel costs for someone moon mining Technetium are insignificant compared to the military costs. So, for them, they're price probably won't increase much at all and the total dollars in the system may actually force the Technetium price DOWN (as more money goes to the low-ends). Additionally, the mark-up to final t2 component is as much as 100% for some items. That has room to come down too.
To give some sense of this, let's take Fullerides (made from Carbon Polymers and PT Technite). And hence from Technetium, Platinum, Hydrocarbon and Silicates. If the price of Hydrocarbons and Silicates rises to 800 per unit (a HUGE percentage increase), that only leads to an increase in price of Fullerides by about 20isk per unit. Technetium would have to fall about 1200 per unit (3% decrease).
On the other hand, T2 modules may have a very different story. The NPC (now PI) goods contribute anywhere from 1-20% of the cost of an item. The Moon mineral cost is generally in the 70% or less range. These items may become SIGNIFICANTLY more expensive (potentially doubling some things even) in a very short time.
So I don't think it's doom and gloom time for the T2 production world.
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